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2005-05-21 11:47:44
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Statement as of 9:30 am EDT on September 4, 2004
... Spiral band with hurricane force wind gusts reaching the Southeast Florida coast...
National Weather Service Doppler radar shows a band of squalls with wind gusts of 90 mph moving rapidly toward the southwest at 40 mph across the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach and Broward counties. A measured wind gust to 91 mph was observed in Jupiter Inlet when the leading edge of this rainband reached the coast. The leading edge of this squall will continue to move southwest and affect the entire coast, including the metropolitan areas of Palm Beach and northeast Broward counties through 1030 am.
Persons should avoid being outdoors! Power outages are likely to be experienced when tree limbs are blown down.
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Expires 10:30 PM EDT on September 04, 2004
Statement as of 11:41 am EDT on September 4, 2004
... Wind gusts of 91 mph in northeast Palm Beach County...
... Areas affected... this statement applies to persons in Palm Beach... Broward... Miami-Dade... Collier... Hendry... Glades and Mainland Monroe counties.
... Watches and warnings... a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Southeast Florida coast and Lake Okeechobee... including Metro Palm Beach... Broward and Miami-Dade.
An inland hurricane wind warning remains in effect for all inland South Florida counties.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southwest Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach southward to south of Florida City.
A Flood Watch is in effect for all South Florida counties.
... Storm information... at 11 am EDT... the center of Hurricane Frances was located near latitude 26.9 north... longitude 78.8 west. This location is about 80 miles east of West Palm Beach. Frances has been drifting between west to west northwest during the past few hours but is expected to resume a west northwest track at 5 mph this afternoon. Frances is expected to be very near the Florida East Coast late tonight or early Sunday morning. Frances is a strong category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall.
... Precautionary/preparedness actions... squalls will become nearly continuous across Palm Beach County this afternoon and evening with sustained hurricane force winds and gusts near 100 mph. Across Broward and Miami-Dade counties... squalls will increase in frequency and strength this afternoon. The threat from Hurricane Frances will be long in duration. Evacuation orders for South Florida counties remain in effect.
... Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts... the actual storm surge will depend entirely upon when and where the center of Frances crosses the coast. At present... Frances is forecast to cross the East Coast of Florida north of Palm Beach County around midnight tonight. The maximum storm tide for Palm Beach County is expected to be from 3 to 5 feet above mean sea level in the mid to late afternoon today with the primary threat being along the northeast Palm Beach coast around Jupiter Inlet. Storm tide is a combination of storm surge from the hurricane and the astronomical tide levels. The primary astronomical high tide for the Jupiter Inlet area will be around 2 PM today. In must be emphasized that if the center of the hurricane actually comes inland farther south... a higher storm tide would occur.
For Lake Okeechobee... the lake level on Thursday was 13.6 feet above mean sea level which is below normal for this time of the year. With the current forecast track... the water would be pushed up as much as 6 feet higher on the lake side of the dike in Glades... Hendry... and western Palm Beach counties. This would affect areas from the mouth of Fisheating Creek all the way around to the town of Okeechobee including Moore Haven... Clewiston... South Bay ... Belle Glade... Pahokee and Port Mayaca. The maximum storm surge inside Hoover Dike is expected to be about 18 to 20 feet above mean sea level this evening. The Hoover Dike protects inhabited areas to at least 30 feet above mean sea level. Ritta... Kreamer and Torry islands would be flooded at these levels including some campgrounds and roads. It must be emphasized that the exact impact on the lake will ultimately depend on how close and from what direction Frances approaches the lake... and how strong it actually is when it approaches the lake.
For the southwest Florida coast... maximum storm tide is expected to be around 4 feet above mean sea level along the Ten Thousand Islands of Mainland Monroe County and the Chokoloskee and Everglades City areas of Collier County during the predawn hours Sunday. This could flood parts of State Road 29 between Tamiami Trail and Chokoloskee. From Marco Island north to Naples and Bonita Beach the maximum storm tide is expected to be from 3 to 4 feet above mean sea level. High tide for the Naples area will be around 430 am Sunday.
... Wind impacts... at 1015 am... wind gusts at Palm Beach International Airport reached 60 mph. At 1040 am a wind gust of 50 mph was reported at North Perry Airport in Pembroke Pines. Between 9 and 10 am unofficial wind gusts of 91 mph were measured at Jupiter Inlet with an 80 mph gust at Boca Raton. Over northern Palm Beach County... winds will reach sustained hurricane force... 74 mph... around mid afternoon and will continue through much of tonight.
Winds across most of the remainder of Southeast Florida Metro areas are ranging from 20 to 30 mph with gusts as high as 50 mph. Sustained tropical force winds above 40 mph will gradually spread across the Southeast Florida Metro areas this afternoon with gusts near hurricane force... particularly in squalls. According to Doppler radar estimates winds of tropical storm force are beginning to occur in Hendry and Glades counties. Winds may cause trees to uproot and large tree limbs to break which could cause power outages. The winds may also blow down traffic lights and signs... making driving even more hazardous.
... Local marine impacts... hurricane conditions are occurring portions of the Palm Beach Atlantic coastal waters. Tropical storm force winds are occurring on Lake Okeechobee and will increase to hurricane force this evening. The winds will decrease below hurricane force on Sunday. Tropical storm force winds are occurring over the Broward and Miami-Dade coastal waters... including Biscayne Bay and are forecast to decrease on Sunday.
Also... the combination of dangerous battering waves with moderate swells could impact parts of the northeast Palm Beach County coast mainly from Riviera Beach north to Jupiter Inlet producing severe beach erosion... particularly through this afternoon. This will also result in dangerous surf and rip currents. On the southwest Florida coast... onshore winds this evening through Sunday afternoon will result in a high risk of rip currents there.
... Local flood impacts... an unofficial rainfall amount of 2.6 inches was recorded at Jupiter. Doppler estimated rainfall amounts of one to two inches have been observed over eastern Glades and northeast Hendry counties. So far most areas have received less than one inch of rain but the slow movement of Frances means that rainfall could still be very heavy and flooding is still possible across parts of Florida through Sunday... especially along and north of where the center crosses the coast.Historically extreme rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches and more have been observed in similar very slow moving hurricanes.
Forecasted storm total rainfall amounts through Sunday in Palm Beach County could reach up to 8 to 10 inches with local amounts as high as 12 inches... especially in areas closest to where Frances crosses the coastline. In Glades and Hendry counties... maximum rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible. From 2 to 6 inches are possible across the rest of South Florida. A Flood Watch is now in effect for all of South Florida.
... Local tornado impacts... National Weather Service Doppler radar this morning has shown a possible tornado within the spiral rain bands and additional tornadoes are possible this afternoon and early tonight.
... Next update... the next regularly scheduled Hurricane Frances local statement will be issued around 6 PM today.
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Statement as of 1:55 PM EDT on September 4, 2004
... Very strong wind gusts and heavy rain continue to impact Palm Beach and Broward counties as well as Lake Okeechobee...
A strong band of squalls with wind gusts to hurricane force will continue to move southwest and affect metropolitan areas of Palm Beach and Broward counties through 4 PM. Wind gusts in excess of 75 mph will result in down power lines and trees across this area. Strong wind gusts in excess of 65 mph will also affect Lake Okeechobee and western sections of Palm Beach County near Belle Glade and South Bay.
This band will continue to track over the same areas and will result in rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches through this period. This will likely produce flooding of low lying... poorly drained areas and roadways.
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Statement as of 5:38 am EDT on September 4, 2004
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a Flood Watch for western Collier and Mainland Monroe counties until 8 PM Sunday night. Also... a Flood Watch continues in effect for Hendry... Glades... Palm Beach... eastern Collier... Broward... and Miami-Dade counties until 800 PM EDT Sunday evening.
Hurricane Frances at 5 am was about 45 miles east of Freeport Grand Bahama Island... and 125 miles east of West Palm Beach Florida. The outer squalls from Frances will continue to affect the southeast coast of Florida through Sunday... as the hurricane slowly moves toward the Florida East Coast.
The current forecast track has the hurricane making landfall around St. Lucie or Indian River counties sometime Saturday night... slowing even more as it approaches the coast. This will result in the potential for torrential amounts of rain particularly in areas along the path of Frances. Past hurricanes that have slowed to speeds less than 10 knots as they approached a landfall have produced in excess of 20 inches of rain. Hurricane Danny in 1997 produced over 30 inches of rain at Dauphin Island as he stalled near mobile Bay Alabama.
Forecast storm total rainfall amounts through Sunday in Palm Beach County could reach up to 8 to 10 inches with local amounts as high as 12 inches... especially in areas closer to where Frances crosses the coastline. In Glades and Hendry counties... maximum rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible. From 2 to 6 inches are possible across the rest of South Florida.
There is still uncertainty as to the exact timing and location of the landfall of Frances. Even minor deviations southward in the track... or changes in the speed of advance... can make a big difference in the amount of rainfall that occurs over South Florida.
For additional information visit the Miami National Weather Service website at miamiweather.Info. For information in Spanish, visit our website at eltiempoenmiami.Info.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further details or updates.
A Flood Watch means the threat of flooding exists within the watch area. Persons in and near the affected area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local television and radio. Be ready to take quick action if flooding is observed or a Flood Warning is issued.
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09/04/2004 0130 PM
Boynton Beach, Palm Beach County.
Hurricane, reported by trained spotter.
Wind gust to 77 mph reported by spotter 48.
09/04/2004 0120 PM
Boynton Beach, Palm Beach County.
Hurricane, reported by amateur radio.
Winds 70 mph sustained gusts to 90 mph.
09/04/2004 1130 am
Jupiter, Palm Beach County.
Hurricane, reported by newspaper.
91 mph wind gust. Time is estimated.
09/04/2004 1255 PM
Jupiter, Palm Beach County.
Non-thunderstorm wind gust 90 mph, reported by law enforcement.
Jupiter pd measured wind sustained 80 mph, gusting 90 mph 1-1/2 mi inland from the beach
09/04/2004 0123 PM
Boynton Beach, Palm Beach County.
Non-thunderstorm wind gust 77 mph, reported by trained spotter.
Skywarn spotter reported a peak wind gust of 77 mph.
09/04/2004 1211 PM
West Palm Beach, Palm Beach County.
Non-thunderstorm wind gust 71 mph, reported by official NWS obs.
Official NWS observation at kpbi
09/04/2004 1020 am
Boynton Beach, Palm Beach County.
Non-thunderstorm wind gust 70 mph, reported by trained spotter.
Measured gust
09/04/2004 0950 am
Boca Raton, Palm Beach County.
Thunderstorm wind gust, reported by trained spotter.
Steady gale force winds with frequent gusts to 80 mph
09/04/2004 0900 am
Jupiter, Palm Beach County.
Hurricane, reported by mesonet.
Wind gust of 91 mph reported at Jupiter Inlet.
09/04/2004 0807 am
Jupiter, Palm Beach County.
Hurricane, reported by mesonet.
Wind gust of 87 mph at Jupiter Inlet.
09/04/2004 0110 am
Riviera Beach, Palm Beach County.
Tropical storm, reported by public.
Public reported wind 75 mph wind gust, Riviera Beach, West Palm Beach Lane and Dixie Highway
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